The final week in March brought a shakeup to the 2000 Guineas market, with the news that the Aidan O’Brien-trained market leader may not be quite ready to strut his stuff on Saturday, 3rd of May.
Unbeaten in two juvenile outings, The Lion In Winter topped the market for the 2000 Guineas and Derby as he sought to follow in the illustrious hoofprints of his sire, Sea The Stars. Now, it seems the first leg of that famous double may be off the table.
Horse is Well but Behind Stablemates
Happily, The Lion In Winter has not succumbed to injury before his Classic campaign gets underway; the horse has simply taken slightly longer to find his stride than other Classic-calibre colts in the yard.
When outlining the current condition of The Lion In Winter, O’Brien stated:
“He took a little bit of time to come right, so he’s a little bit behind the others.”
Before going on to add:
“If he doesn’t go to Newmarket, he might be trained for something like the Dante and go straight to the Derby, or something like that.
“There has to be a doubt about the Guineas, but he’s very well.”
Whilst The Lion In Winter has not officially been ruled out of a tilt at the opening colt’s Classic of the season, the betting market didn’t take long to react to O’Brien’s comments. As short as 4/1 for Guineas glory earlier in the month, the unbeaten colt is now out to as big as 14/1 in places as punters look elsewhere for their 2000 Guineas hero.
Lion Remains Atop the Derby Betting
The Lion In Winter may have slipped to seventh in the 2000 Guineas betting market, but he retains his position as the ante-post favourite for the Epsom Derby. Sired by a Derby and Arc winner, out of a mare who was at her best over 1m4f, and pencilled in to tackle the key Derby trial of the Dante Stakes, it would be a surprise if the good-looking bay didn’t take his place as part of the O’Brien Derby squadron on Saturday, 7th of June.
Expanded Fills Gap at the Head of the Market
The question marks surrounding the participation of The Lion In Winter simply created space for another O’Brien-trained contender to assume favouritism. In the case of the 2000 Guineas this year, that horse is the Wootton Bassett colt, Expanded.
Raced only twice during his juvenile campaign, this late-developing sort made quite the impression in two starts in October. Having scored at the first time of asking at the Curragh, the mount of Ryan Moore came within a whisker of a Group 1 success at HQ when losing out by a neck in the Dewhurst Stakes.
Dewhurst Stakes 2024 Full Result
| Position | Horse (SP) | Trainer | Jockey | Dist. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | Shadow Of Light (Evens) | Charlie Appleby | William Buick | – |
| 2nd | Expanded (12/1) | Aidan O’Brien | Ryan Moore | + Neck |
| 3rd | Ancient Truth (13/8) | Charlie Appleby | James Doyle | + ½ Length |
| 4th | Seagulls Eleven (9/1) | Hugo Palmer | Oisin Murphy | + 4 Lengths |
| 5th | Rock Of Cashel (33/1) | Aidan O’Brien | Wayne Lordan | + 6¼ Lengths |
That was a mighty performance on only his second career outing, and, having proven his ability to handle the notorious Newmarket dip, he looks an obvious 2000 Guineas contender. The market appears to agree with that assessment, with Expanded now a general 7/1 favourite for the Classic at HQ.
However, not all bookmakers agree that Expanded is the Ballydoyle number 1, with some firms moving his half-brother Twain to the head of the betting. Unlike Expanded, Twain has yet to race at Newmarket. However, he is already a Group 1 winner, having claimed the Criterium International on his final start at two.
Don’t Forget Godolphin
If a horse other than Expanded or Twain is to top the 2000 Guineas market on the day, it is most likely to be a runner from the yard of Godolphin’s number one handler, Charlie Appleby.
Appleby has six 2000 Guineas entries, with the following foursome occupying four of the top six positions in the market.
- Shadow Of Light – Tasted defeat only once in five starts at two, his wins including a Group 1 double in the Middle Park Stakes and Dewhurst Stakes
- Ancient Truth – 2024 Superlative Stakes winner, who finished only ½l behind Shadow Of Light in the Dewhurst Stakes
- Ruling Court – No match for The Lion In Winter in the Acomb Stakes but returned at Meydan in March to claim a 1m Listed contest in a six-length canter
- Opera Ballo – The 2025 version of 2024 2000 Guineas champ Notable Speech? Like his stablemate, Opera Bello was unraced at two but has forced himself into the Guineas picture with sizzling displays at Kempton this season
Five of the past eight 2000 Guineas have fallen to Aidan O’Brien or Charlie Appleby. When looking at the respective teams for 2025, there is a fair chance of that record improving this season, but quite which way it will go remains to be seen.
