They say everyone deserves a second chance, so trainer Willie Mullins, alongside owner Rich Ricci, is sending Vauban to the Melbourne Cup for one more chance at glory.
For Vauban’s team, there is a sense of unfinished business. Last year, the Irish star was the clear favourite for the race, sitting at 9-2. But he ultimately disappointed with a surprising 14th spot, while Mullins’ other horse, Absurde, could only finish fifth. Without a Fight, taking the top spot was five and a half lengths ahead.
The signs all point to a successful race, with Vauban recently winning at the G2 Lonsdale Cup at York in a very impressive showing. Mullins also believes that he is far fitter compared to last year, and expects a positive result in 2024.
What Do the Bookies Say?
When you’re in doubt about the outcome of a match or race, look to the odds. The bookies will have the most accurate picture of what may happen at the Melbourne Cup; and for this year, most odds point to Vauban having a great chance to win.
The odds differ slightly depending on the provider, but Vauban is second-favorite at 7-1. The only horse ahead of him is Jan Brueghel, currently at 6-1. Absurde, also trained by team Mullins, is also in with a good shot but is further behind at 14-1.
The horse with the best odds gives you a pretty good indication of the winner, so Mullins will perhaps have to temper expectations a little bit. In 163 races, 34 winners started the day as the number one favorites (equating to 20.85%).
To counter that, there’s this: the last time the top odds horse lived up to expectations was in 2013 when Fiorente won at 8-1 odds. Vauban can attest to the fact the best does not always win, with him coming in a disappointing 15th last year (odds of 6.5/1 to win).
In the modern era, the most backed horse usually does not win. The early results skew the stats, where the top horse usually did salute in the Melbourne Cup.
Mullins Makes Changes
The horse is the same for the Melbourne Cup, but many changes have been made in an attempt to avoid another disappointing run in 2024. Ryan Moore was the jockey in last year’s attempt, but Mullins has decided to make a change in favor of William Buick.
It’s not an illogical move, with Buick riding Vauban in the last two starts, both successful races. David Casey, Mullins’ assistant trainer, is also making alterations to the training schedule, looking to improve Vauban’s fitness in the lead-up to the race.
The focus is on the Group 1 and Group 2 races, which will be given a far tougher program, with Mullins hoping it will make the necessary difference. Last year, Vauban’s training load was lightened with the qualifying rounds in mind, which perhaps had a negative overall effect on the day of the race. Casey feels that ultimately, the time between runs was too long, and that rest was excessively prioritized.
With Vauban not needing to go through the same route this year, the team can build both the training and racing schedule according to what they think is best for Melbourne. This race has been the focus of the last few months, with recent official outings effectively serving as part of the ‘warm up’ for the Melbourne Cup.
Vauban and Absurde in Optimal Condition
At the time of writing, both Vauban and Absurde are in optimal condition at the Werribee quarantine facility. The horses are used to travelling and an overall experience and both have been eating and drinking appropriately. Vauban has reportedly gained all the weight lost in the previous races, while Absurde is well on his way to peak fitness.
So far, the horses have done only some light training, but are gearing up for a more challenging schedule in the short term. The team is happy with the progress so far and is far more confident compared to last year.
Casey claims that this time, the team has done “everything right”, leaving nothing to chance, taking every precaution, and making the necessary tweaks in the weeks before the race.
Will Vauban Show His ‘True Running’?
In a recent interview, Casey was interviewed about going back to Melbourne. He is confident that Vauban can win, and that last year he didn’t give a proper account of himself.
While winning is certainly far from guaranteed, Vauban’s team is looking to rid itself of the sour taste following last year’s edition. The results in the months leading up to the big race have certainly been encouraging, but there are no guarantees.
The Melbourne Cup in the last twenty years has been very difficult to predict, but if we are to believe Mullins, Vauban is worth a punt in 2024.
