Representing a trainer who has yet to win the race and experiencing a dirt track for the first time, Aidan O’Brien’s latest superstar, City Of Troy, still has plenty on his plate if he is to come home in front in the Breeders’ Cup Classic on Saturday evening (Del Mar, 21:41). However, O’Brien has come mightily close in this event, when saddling Giant’s Causeway and Henrythenavigator to finish second, whilst City Of Troy’s sire, Justify, excelled on dirt. Hope on those two fronts, and this week, the Derby, Coral-Eclipse, and Juddmonte International winner successfully navigated another couple of hurdles.
Firstly, he received clearance to run having passed successfully through quarantine – usually a formality, but not always, as O’Brien knows only too well, following Jan Brueghel’s failure to meet Australian Racing’s rigorous/overzealous veterinary checks ahead of a planned tilt at the Melbourne Cup. Secondly, he has also been handed a favourable starting stall following the draw for the £5m+ showstopper.
Stall Three Hands Him Every Chance
With no winner having emerged from stall three since the success of Awesome Again in 1998, the stats may not be particularly positive for the third box from the rail. However, that 26-year wait masks a strong recent trend towards those drawn low. Looking at the past three editions of the race, the winners broke from stalls 2, 4, and 4 – the last of those coming in the most recent renewal to take place at Del Mar. With Ryan Moore in the saddle, Stall 3 looks ideal for City Of Troy.
A low draw is particularly valuable to City Of Troy given his preferred running style. He may have come with a late rattle to land the Derby, but a prominent racing style characterised most of his other victories – most notably when making all the running to land a red-hot edition of the Juddmonte International at York last time out. With all going smoothly as the race edges ever nearer, City Of Troy remains the clear favourite across the board at a general 7/4.
Thirteen Stand Between City Of Troy and Immortality
With the draw safely negotiated and preparations going to plan, the dirt surface perhaps remains the biggest potential stumbling block – although his recent effortless win in a trial gallop at Southwell offers some encouragement in that regard. Nevertheless, handling the terrain does not provide a guarantee of success. City Of Troy may bring stellar form to the table, but the 13 rivals he faces (Rattle N Roll is a reserve) are no slouches, with the following quartet, in particular, expected to lay down a stern challenge.
Fierceness
Successful with Vino Rosso in 2019, Texas trainer Todd Pletcher has his eye on a second Breeders’ Cup Classic victory and, in Fierceness, he may have the horse to do it. Sired by City Of Light, who bagged four Grade 1 contests on dirt, this three-year-old needs just one more to match the tally of his father, following wins in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Florida Derby, and Travers Stakes. Going in the hands of John R Velazquez, who claimed the 2020 edition for Bob Baffert aboard Authentic, he looks a major threat to all.
Forever Young
If recent seasons have taught us anything, it is that contenders hailing from the Land of the Rising Sun merit the utmost respect whenever they turn up for battle. The 2023 fifth Ushba Tesoro, last year’s runner-up Derma Sotogake, and Forever Young represent Japan in 2024, with the market suggesting the latter is the most likely to prevail. Also three years of age, this son of Real Steel has tasted defeat only once in six career starts, when going down by a short head In the Kentucky Derby. Warming up for this with a smooth win in his homeland, he should go well for Ryusei Sakai.
Sierra Leone
If John Magnier, Michael Tabor and co. miss the target with City Of Troy, they may strike gold with this Coolmore-owned son of Gun Runner, who landed the 2017 edition of this race over this very course and distance. Having developed a frustrating habit of hitting the frame without winning, Sierra Leone has yet to hit the heights of his sire, but boasts form figures of 1233 in Grade 1 company and shouldn’t be dismissed lightly.
Highland Falls
Last, but not least, it is not beyond the realms of possibility that we may witness a classic Coolmore vs Godolphin showdown in the closing stages of one of the biggest races of the US racing year. Flying the flag for Godolphin is this Brad Cox-trained four-year-old, who posted a huge career best when running away with the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes last time out. Sire Curlin landed that contest before his 2007 win in this race, and the mount of Luis Saez may be peaking at just the right time.
