The Futurity Trophy, which runs in late October, is the final Group 1 event of the British flat racing season. Restricted to two-year-old horses, it sees some of the leading juveniles try to sign off the campaign with a notable victory to set themselves up for glory in the Classics a year on.
The 2024 edition of the event, run at its usual home of Doncaster Racecourse, was won by Hotazhell. What does this victory mean though to the Jessica Harrington-trained colt? Will it be a platform for further success next season as a three-year-old or does the Futurity tell us little about how he might fare in future?
Futurity Trophy Result in 2024
| Position | Horse (SP) | Trainer |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | Hotazhell (11/1) | Jessica Harrington |
| 2nd | Delacroix (15/8) | Aidan O’Brien |
| 3rd | Wimbledon Hawkeye (3/1) | James Owen |
The 2024 edition of this one-mile event attracted eight runners, something it has done now for four of the previous five years. From the eight hopeful juveniles, the bookies were expecting a close contest between Delacroix (15/8) and second favourite Wimbledon Hawkeye (3/1). No other runner was close in the betting so it seemed like we might be in for a two-horse contest.
Coming into the final furlong it was very much a two-horse contest but one between Delacroix and Hotazhell who had just pulled away from the trailing pack. The pair were neck and neck as they broke away, with virtually nothing to separate them. This continued to be the case as the two Irish-trained runners approached the winning post but Hotazhell just managed to get his nose in front.
Given that the Aidan O’Brien-trained Delacroix came into the contest having won the Group 3 Autumn Stakes at Newmarket, this was quite the triumph for Hotzazhell on his British racing debut. He showed real grit to see off the sustained challenge from the race favourite and fully deserved the lucrative win. It was such a strong finish from the pair that Wimbledon Hawkeye, in third place, finished nearly five lengths behind.
How Do Futurity Winners Perform The Following Season?
The Futurity win was no fluke for Hotzahell who had been performing well in Ireland coming into the Doncaster test. He had won two graded tests across the Irish Sea including the Beresford Stakes, although admittedly both contests had small five-horse fields. Nevertheless, this, combined with the impressive Futurity victory, would suggest that Hotzahell could enjoy a successful season as a three-year-old.
The problem is that a strong juvenile season does not always translate to success the following season. River Delight, winner of the 2016 Futurity (or Racing Post Trophy as it was known then) failed to land a win as a three-year-old and was later shipped off to Hong Kong where he also failed to win a race. You also have Marcel, winner of the 2015 race, who after a dead-last finish in the 2,000 Guineas on his three-year-old debut, never raced again.
The good news for connections of Hotzahell is that there are more success stories than there are flops in recent times. From the last seven Futurity winners, three went on to win the 2,000 Guineas and another won the Irish 2,000 Guineas. From the remaining three, two of them enjoyed great success across several races including those you can see in the list below.
- Ancient Wisdom (2023 winner)
- Major 3YO Wins – Bahrain Trophy Stakes (G3)
- Auguste Rodin (2022 winner)
- Major 3YO Wins – Epsom Derby (G1), Irish Derby (G1), Irish Champion Stakes (G1), Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1)
- Luxembourg (2021 winner)
- Major 3YO Wins – Royal Whip Stakes (G3), Irish Champion Stakes (G1)
- Mac Swiney (2020 winner)
- Major 3YO Wins – Irish 2,000 Guineas (G1)
- Kameko (2019 winner)
- Major 3YO Wins – 2,000 Guineas (G1), Joel Stakes (G2)
- Magna Grecia (2018 winner)
- Major 3YO Wins – 2,000 Guineas (G1)
- Saxon Warrior (2017 winner)
- Major 3YO Wins – 2,000 Guineas (G1)
Going back another three years (2014-2016) none of the victors of this race secured a Group-quality win as a three-year-old but even so, a record of 7 out of the last 10 is quite a strong one. There is perhaps a slight increased element of uncertainty with Hotazhell though because he was an unexpected winner of the Futurity and it is a race that typically does not deliver them.
Of the last 12 Futurity winners, 10 came from the top three in the betting and eight were outright favourites. Mac Swiney was a 12/1 shot (who only won one race from 11 after his debut season) and the other was 33/1 upset Marcel, who as mentioned before, retired after a sudden drop-off in the 2,000 Guineas.
Will Hotazhell Be a Success in 2025?
It is worth keeping your eye on Hotazhell next season as Futurity winners often go on to secure success as three-year-olds. The level of success varies though as it depends on how horses develop over the winter break. It would be no surprise to see the Jessica Harrington runner deliver but he is by no means a guaranteed hit.
