As ever, the first weekend in June is a red-letter day for racing fans. There are five Classics on the British racing calendar, but with all due respect to the 2,000 Guineas, the 1,000 Guineas, the Oaks, and the St Leger, none quite match the prestige of the glorious Epsom Derby.
The blue riband contest of the flat campaign continues to top the wish list of the leading owners, trainers, and jockeys alike, and not only because of the £1.5 million in prize money on offer. There are, after all, more valuable contests held elsewhere in the world, but no race bestows such riches upon the breeding value of the winner or such a prominent position in the annals of racing history.
Ballydoyle the Obvious Starting Point for Punters
For punters, predicting the winner of the 1m4f Classic presents an irresistible challenge, with the ante-post market for the big race available long before the flat season begins in earnest.
When attempting to solve the Epsom conundrum, the obvious place to start is at the yard of the trainer with more wins than any other in the 245-year history of the great race. Things were no different ahead of the 2025 edition, with an unbeaten Aidan O’Brien colt out on his own atop the market as we headed into the winter months.
All Change Following the Dante Stakes, But Not For Long
From a raft of plausible contenders, the colt elevated to the summit of the 2025 Derby market was The Lion In Winter. Sired by Derby winner Sea The Stars and unbeaten during an – albeit brief – juvenile campaign, the horse who smashed the juvenile seven-furlong course record at York began the year as the clear 5/1 favourite for the race.
Having skipped his intended opening assignment in the 2,000 Guineas, anticipation was high ahead of his return in the Dante Stakes at York on 15th May 2025. Sent off at odds of 8/11, the mount of Ryan Moore was fully expected to advertise his Derby credentials on his first crack at 1m2½f. What followed was more than a little underwhelming.
Rather than stamping his class upon his fellow Epsom hopefuls, The Lion In Winter sweated up concerningly before the off, pulled hard during the race, and eventually trailed home in sixth – four lengths adrift of the winner, Pride Of Arras.
The markets reacted to that display in the manner you might expect. As short as 5/2 for the Derby before that outing, The Lion In Winter was available to back at 6/1 immediately following the race.
Just seven days after that contest on the Knavesmire, The Lion In Winter is now back into a best price of 5/2. Clear favourite once again, he is half the price of his Dante conqueror, Pride Of Arras, and ahead of 2,000 Guineas hero Ruling Court and impressive stablemate Delacroix. All of which may seem strange at first glance, considering the horse has done nothing to enhance his reputation. However, this renewed support for The Lion In Winter may stem from the fact that we have seen this all before.
2024: City Of Troy
Flawless during a spectacular two-year-old season, which culminated in a runaway success in the Dewhurst Stakes, City Of Troy started at just 4/6 to claim the 2,000 Guineas. However, that tall reputation suffered a significant blow as he beat only two home at Newmarket, finishing 17 lengths adrift of the winner, Notable Speech.
Despite that setback, the son of US Triple Crown winner Justify was sent off as the 3/1 favourite to claim the Derby. This time, he didn’t disappoint. Travelling nicely throughout, the colt handled the Epsom undulations with aplomb to storm to success by almost three lengths before adding the Coral-Eclipse and the Juddmonte International to his Group 1 haul.
2023: Auguste Rodin
Sired by Japanese sensation Deep Impact, Auguste Rodin won three of his four starts at two, including the Group 1 Futurity Trophy at Doncaster by an impressive thee and a half lengths. Rocketing to the head of the 2,000 Guineas and Derby markets on the back of that effort, he was touted as a potential Triple Crown contender by connections.
Those Triple Crown aspirations went up in smoke at the first hurdle. Starting as the 13/8f for the 2,000 Guineas, Auguste Rodin posted an abysmal effort to finish 12th of the 14 runners, fully 22 lengths behind Chaldean.
On that Guineas effort, Auguste Rodin looked a short price at 9/2 for the Derby. However, O’Brien once again showed that he knows what it takes to have a colt at their peak in June. Coming with a relentless withering run in the straight, Auguste Rodin got up close home to deny King Of Steel in a thriller. Unlike the subsequently consistent City Of Troy, Auguste Rodin continued to show his Jekyll and Hyde nature thereafter but added four further Group 1s to his haul before heading into retirement.
The Lion In Winter to Repeat the Trick?
Having witnessed spectacular bounce-back Derby victories from an Aidan O’Brien runner in each of the past two seasons, it becomes easy to understand why punters are keeping the faith. But can The Lion In Winter do it?
Unlike City Of Troy and Auguste Rodin before him, The Lion In Winter heads to Epsom without a Group 1 success to his name. On the other hand, his four-length defeat in the Dante wasn’t anything like as desperate as the Guineas displays of his predecessors. Will it be a case of history repeating on the Epsom Downs? All will be revealed on Saturday, 7th June.
