As the number one jockey for the all-conquering Willie Mullins, Paul Townend invariably enjoys an envious book of rides. Things will be no different at the Dublin Racing Festival (DRF) this weekend, where Townend will be the man aboard a healthy proportion of market leaders.
We suspect the brilliant rider wouldn’t wish to trade places with any other jockey. However, such a wealth of talent does bring a fair share of difficult decisions in the races where Mullins has more than one entry – of which there are many. In some events, the yard number one is clear, e.g., Galopin Des Champs in the Irish Gold Cup. However, selecting the most likely winner in other contests is far from straightforward.
Townend faces a tricky decision in a couple of the juvenile events. However, his biggest headscratcher comes ahead of the Irish Champion Hurdle, where he must choose between the hugely talented duo of State Man and Lossiemouth.
The Case for State Man
Sitting on a rating of 168, the eight-year-old State Man is the most talented runner in the field according to the official handicapper. He is also a 10-time Grade 1 winner, including the 2024 Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham and the 2023 and 2024 editions of this contest. A winner of four of six starts at Leopardstown and successful at the highest level on ground ranging from heavy to good/yielding, he boasts a mightily impressive race record.
Given his overall profile, State Man would look like the obvious choice. However, it isn’t quite so straightforward, as the son of Docter Dino arrives on the back of successive defeats at Punchestown and over this track and trip in the Neville Hotels Hurdle. Never before has State Man tasted defeat in back-to-back events, with his 31l third to Brighterdaysahead representing his worst performance in some time.
Despite that poor display, Mullins still views State Man as the best 2m hurdler in the yard. Will Townend follow the “form is temporary, class is permanent” mantra and stick with the two-time champ?
The Case for Lossiemouth
In placing Lossiemouth on a mark of 160, the official handicapper concurs that State Man is the most talented 2m hurdler in the Mullins yard. However, she receives a 7lb mares’ allowance here, bringing her to within 1lb of her stablemate.
The Rich Ricci-owned star can’t match the 10 Grade 1 wins of State Man. However, she is two years younger than her stablemate and already has five to her name, including two victories at the Cheltenham Festival. Unlike State Man, she has yet to land a top-tier event at Leopardstown but did claim the Grade 2 Knight Frank Juvenile Hurdle, and was a hugely unlucky second in the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle at the 2023 edition of this meeting.
Lossiemouth kicked off 2024/25 with a scintillating victory in the Hatton’s Grace Hurdle, with the manner of that display seeing her assume Champion Hurdle favouritism. She has now lost that honour following a 2½l defeat to Constitution Hill in the Christmas Hurdle.
That 21/2l margin is closer than State Man got to the Nicky Henderson star when a 9l second in the 2023 Champion Hurdle. However, Constitution Hill was at the top of his game when dismissing State Man, whilst Lossiemouth faced the unbeaten hurdler on his first start following a 366-day injury-enforced absence. As such, a literal reading of the form may not provide a fair comparison.
At a general price of 8/15, the market currently favours Lossiemouth, with State Man available at 7/4. However, this may change once riding arrangements become clear. Over to you, Paul!