The Belmont Stakes isn’t just the final leg of the Triple Crown—it’s where the script often gets rewritten. Longshots rise, favourites falter, and even the most talented horses are pushed to their limits. Triple Crown on the line or not, this race has a history of delivering surprises and defining moments.
In 2025, the Belmont Stakes returns to Saratoga Race Course as renovations continue at Belmont Park. Like last year, the race will be contested over 1¼ miles instead of its traditional 1½-mile distance—a shift that changes everything. From race strategy to betting angles, the shorter trip reshapes how horses are prepped and how the field is analysed.
If you’re sizing up this year’s contenders, raw talent alone isn’t enough. You need to consider track dynamics, pace setup, and how each runner matches the conditions. It’s still the Belmont—but with new challenges that demand fresh insight.
Different Distance, Different Dynamics
Historically, the Belmont is about endurance. That’s what made it the “Test of the Champion.” But with the shortened trip at Saratoga, it’s no longer just about stamina. Acceleration and position now carry equal weight.
That puts more pressure on horses that rely on late surges. With less time to catch the leaders, closers need a clean break and smart timing. Meanwhile, front-runners and stalkers have a better shot at holding position and dictating the pace.
That’s why many bettors are adjusting their approach and flocking to platforms that help break down performance data, post positions, and past results. It’s why more are choosing to bet online at FanDuel, a trusted platform where real-time odds, replays, and stats make it easier to weigh form and track trends before committing to a bet.
The Showdown: Journalism vs. Sovereignty
The spotlight this year is firmly on Journalism and Sovereignty, two standout 3-year-olds who have already delivered fireworks this Triple Crown season.
Sovereignty surged past Journalism in the final eighth to win the Kentucky Derby, showcasing his closing power. He then skipped the Preakness to rest and focus on the Belmont—a strategic decision that’s sparked mixed reactions from both fans and analysts.
In his absence, Journalism delivered in what is becoming signature fashion. He battled through traffic in the Preakness, squeezed through a tight lane, and finished like a freight train. That performance has many believing he’s peaking at just the right time.
The Belmont rematch between these horses is one of the most anticipated face-offs in years. But with the shorter distance and Saratoga’s quirks, it’s far from a two-horse race.
Baeza Is Closing the Gap
While the public is locked in on the top two, smart bettors are watching Baeza. His third-place Derby finish and narrow runner-up spot in the Santa Anita Derby suggest he’s knocking on the door of greatness.
He’s a half-brother to Mage (2023 Kentucky Derby winner) and Dornoch (2024 Belmont winner) – and he’s improving at the right time. Baeza doesn’t need a huge leap—just one more clean trip to change the narrative.
With five weeks of rest, a strong pedigree, and solid speed figures, he fits the profile of a horse ready to take advantage of a fast pace or a late misstep from the favourites.
The Mid-Tier Contenders That Can Shake Things Up
The Belmont always has a few names that hover below the radar—but show up when it counts.
- Rodriguez missed the Derby due to a foot bruise but looked strong in the Wood Memorial. With early speed and clean turns, he could get loose on the front and force others to chase
- Hill Road is another name to keep in mind. He won the Peter Pan Stakes and has been a reliable, consistent type. If the pace heats up and the leaders falter, he’s the kind that can sneak into the top three
- Heart of Honor didn’t fire in the Preakness but had a tough start in his U.S. debut. He’s got upside, especially if he breaks cleaner this time
These aren’t headline horses, but they’re exactly the type that cashes big in trifectas and superfectas.
Saratoga Strategy: What to Watch for
Saratoga isn’t just a new venue—it’s a totally different track than Belmont Park. It has tighter turns, different stretch dynamics, and a surface that reacts quickly to weather.
Track bias is a real thing here. Watch morning works in the days leading up. Horses that move well over the surface often bring that form into race day. Pay close attention to inside vs. outside post performance too. Position plays a bigger role than many realize, especially when the pace setup is aggressive.
Don’t ignore the weather. A fast track vs. a muddy one could tilt the scales heavily in favour of a horse like Sovereignty, who handled slop beautifully in the Derby.
Tips for Building a Smarter Ticket
Given the quality at the top of the field, win betting can be tough. Instead, many bettors look to exotics to find value.
A few basic strategies to consider:
- Anchor your exactas or trifectas with Journalism or Sovereignty
- Add a mid-range option like Baeza or Hill Road for second or third
- Include one longshot who’s shown strong late speed or solid prep results
That combo protects you if the favourites perform—but still gives you room to score if someone unexpected crashes the finish.
Expect the Unexpected
If history has taught bettors anything, it’s that the Belmont rarely goes to script. From huge upsets to last-minute scratches, the race always seems to throw one final twist into the Triple Crown story.
There’s every chance we see another dark horse grab headlines—especially with a tricky Saratoga setup and a field this deep.
So stay sharp. Watch how the board moves. Track the workouts. Remember, don’t lock in your picks until you’ve got the full picture, because the Belmont might test horses—but it also tests bettors.
