Saturday afternoon sees the County Kildare track of the Curragh stage the final fillies-only Classic of the 2025 British and Irish season. Having come out on top in an epic battle with stablemate Whirl in the Epsom Oaks, Minnie Hauk was immediately installed as the warm favourite for this €500,000 showpiece. As the days counted down towards the big day this week, that status has moved from warm to red hot.
Key Rivals to Head Elsewhere
Seven fillies remain in contention for Irish Oaks glory. Of those seven, no fewer than four hail from the yard of Aidan O’Brien. Epsom runner-up Whirl and Prix de Diane second Bedtime Story sat second and third in the betting market earlier in the week and could have been expected to at least give Minnie Hauk a race though both have been withdrawn.
The prospect of the three locking horns on the run to the line always appeared to be remote. When summing up his plans for the 1m4f event, O’Brien stated:
“Whirl probably won’t run. She’s in good form and could go to the Nassau. Bedtime Story probably won’t run, but she’s also in good shape and could go to the Nassau as well.”
In the absence of Whirl and Bedtime Story, the threat to Minnie Hauk from within her own yard reduces to:
- Merrily – This No Nay Never filly ended her juvenile campaign with a promising win in the Group 3 Oh So Sharp Stakes. However, three outings in 2025 have produced three defeats by a combined distance of 45¼ lengths. This would represent a first crack at 1m4f, but her pedigree points more towards speed than stamina
- Island Hopping – By Wootton Bassett and out of a Galileo mare, Island Hopping makes more pedigree appeal but has yet to deliver on that potential. Seven races into her career, her only win came in a Gowran Park Maiden event. Having finished out of contention in Group 3 and Group 2 company this season, she looks up against it
- Butterfly Wings – As a daughter of US Triple Crown winner, Justify, and the Galileo mare, Butterflies, Butterfly Wings has a classy page and should stay this far. However, the evidence at the track suggests otherwise. Last sighted finishing a distant seventh in Group 3 company, she has a mountain to climb on form
Epsom Fourth Most Credible Challenger
With no serious threats lurking among the likely Ballydoyle contenders, it may be left to another of the O’Briens to produce a realistic challenger. Based just down the road at Owning Hill, Joseph O’Brien is no stranger to Classic success, having claimed the Irish Derby and St Leger Stakes. However, the two-time Melbourne Cup winner has yet to win the Irish Oaks – either as a trainer or during his time in the saddle. Could Wemightakedlongway be the filly to put that right in 2025?
Wemightakedlongway gives @JosephOBrien2 Group success, showing a good attitude and bolting up in the @IrishEBF_ Salsabil Stakes with @DylanBrowneMcM on board pic.twitter.com/50vd2H3cpd
— Navan Racecourse (@NavanRacecourse) April 26, 2025
Unlike any other runner in the field, this daughter of Australia boasts a verdict over Minnie Hauk on her CV. However, much water has passed under the bridge since that 2024 Maiden success at Cork. While Wemightakedlongway has progressed to become a Group 3 winner, that is some way short of the standard reached by Minnie Hauk. 5¼-lengths behind the favourite at Epsom, the mount of Dylan Browne McMonagle will need a significant jolt of improvement to turn the tables.
The Fozzy Stack-trained Bay Colony and Subsonic from the Johnny Murtagh operation round out the field. The former picked up her only win from six outings in a Limerick Maiden, while the latter is zero from two in her career to date.
Shortest Price Favourite This Century?
Three odds-on favourites have claimed the Irish Oaks in the past 10 years. The 2/7 chance Snowfall became the shortest-price winner in the current century when sauntering to an 8½-length success in 2021. Four years on, it will be no surprise to see Minnie Hauk break that record.
No bigger than 1/3 at the five-day stage, those odds crashed to as short as 2/9 when trainer O’Brien confirmed that Whirl and Island Hopping would be skipping this assignment. As things stand, it will be a huge surprise if Minnie Hauk fails to hand O’Brien an eighth Irish Oaks success and become the 16th filly to complete the English/Irish Oaks double.
